Off The Record

Scientists Anticipate That Global Warming Will Escalate To An Unprecedented 7°C By 2200, Resulting In Catastrophic Heatwaves, Famine, And Floods

Published on March 27, 2025

According to a recent study, even if we are able to reduce our carbon emissions, our distant relatives may have a difficult time.

By 2200, even with low CO2 emissions, scientists at Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) predict that Earth would warm by an astounding 7°C (12.6°F).

Common crops couldn’t thrive in the hot weather, leading to worldwide food shortages and even famine.

In the meantime, people would have to leave coastal cities owing to flooding caused by rising sea levels brought on by ice melting.

Intense extreme weather events like drought, heat waves, wildfires, tropical storms, and flooding would also be frequent in such a situation.

Temperatures might rise dangerously high, especially during the summer, endangering people of all ages.

The results point to a “urgent need for even faster carbon reduction and removal efforts,” according to Christine Kaufhold, lead study author at PIK.

“We found that peak warming could be much higher than previously expected under low-to-moderate emission scenarios,” she said.

Burning fossil fuels like coal and gas for energy is a major source of greenhouse gases that warm the planet, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane.

However, natural processes like plant respiration, animal respiration, and volcanic eruptions also produce greenhouse gas emissions, which is why carbon reduction technologies are necessary.

The group simulated future global warming scenarios for the study using CLIMBER-X, a newly created computer model. It incorporates important biological, geochemical, and physical processes, such as methane-related atmospheric and marine conditions.

The breakdown of landfill waste and natural releases from wetlands are two sources of methane, which is even more powerful than carbon dioxide (CO2).

Three “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways” (SSPs) based on low, medium, and high predicted global emission levels for the remainder of this millennium were considered by the model.

The majority of climate studies to far only project as far into the future as 2300, which may not be “peak warming,” the experts say.

The results show that even if emissions start to decrease today, there is a 10% possibility that Earth will still warm by 3°C (5.4°F) by 2200.

According to the team, “carbon cycle feedback loops,” in which one change in the climate magnifies another, might cause global warming to surpass earlier projections within this millennium.

Rainy weather, for instance, encourages the growth of some flammable vegetation, which, when dried out, leads to the uncontrollable spread of wildfires.

The extra CO2 released from permafrost—where thawing soil will release more of the gas—is another example.

It’s concerning that future emission reductions would not be sufficient to stop these feedback processes since greenhouse gases that have already been released might still have an impact on global temperatures for some time.

Furthermore, only very low emissions scenarios will allow for the achievement of the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping the rise in global temperatures well below 2°C (3.6°F).

The historic binding worldwide agreement, which was signed in 2015, attempts to limit rises in global temperatures to less than 2.7°F (1.5°C).

However, the team claims that the window for keeping global warming below 2°C is “rapidly closing.”

“Carbon reduction must accelerate even more quickly than previously thought to keep the Paris target within reach,” said PIK scientist Matteo Willeit, study co-author.

“Uncertainties in projecting future climate change” are highlighted in the current study, which was published in Environmental Research Letters.

“Our research makes it unmistakably clear – today’s actions will determine the future of life on this planet for centuries to come,” said co-author and PIK director Johan Rockström.

“We are already seeing signs that Earth system is losing resilience, which may trigger feedbacks that increase climate sensitivity, accelerate warming and increase deviations from predicted trends.”

“To secure a liveable future, we must urgently step up our efforts to reduce emissions.”

“The Paris Agreement’s goal is not just a political target, it is a fundamental physical limit.”