Science
Soviet-Era Spacecraft Expected To Re-Enter Earth’s Atmosphere This Week — Impact Zone Uncertain
The news that the spacecraft Kosmos 482, which has been orbiting the earth for more than fifty years, is about to strike the planet’s surface this week is all over social media and space forums.
Kosmos 482, which was launched by European space explorers in the early 1970s, is scheduled to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere at the end of this week.
Experts say it is doubtful that the Soviet Venus probe, which failed to break out of low Earth orbit, will do any harm.
Other experts, including astrophysics specialist Jonathan McDowell, haven’t discounted death and devastation, though.
We’ve compiled all the information you need ahead of the historic occurrence, which could occur anywhere from the Argentine-Chile border to as far north as London.
This covers the following: the reasons behind the launch of Kosmos 482, the probable locations of the approaching space debris, and the locations for tracking it upon re-entry into the atmosphere.
When and why was Kosmos 482 launched?
A Molniya booster launched the Soviet-era probe Kosmos 482 on March 31, 1972, at Baikonur Cosmodrome, a spaceport run by Russia in Kazakhstan.
The project was a “attempted Venus probe which failed to escape low Earth orbit,” according to NASA. This is supported by historical documents and information gathered from both Soviet and non-Soviet sources.
The spacecraft apparently attempted to launch onto a Venus transfer trajectory, according to the agency.
As the ninth of the Soviet Union’s uncrewed Venera missions to the Morning Star, it was supposed to touch down on the planet’s surface.
However, following a suspected engine burn, it broke into four pieces. Within 48 hours, two fragments that were still in low Earth orbit began to degrade.
Since 1972, the snapped-off lander probe has been in orbit, gradually deteriorating.
Towards the end of the week, this component is anticipated to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere.
When will Kosmos 482 crash land on Earth?
For more than 50 years, Kosmos 482 has been deteriorating in orbit. However, according to NASA, the probe will eventually return to the atmosphere on around May 10 at 7:30 UT (03:30 ET).
The European Space Agency (ESA) has determined that the reentry moment will occur at 07:12 UTC (03:12 ET) in its most recent update.
The atmospheric re-entry time “should be known more accurately over the next day or so,” according to NASA.
“The uncertainty in the reentry date will decrease once we get closer to the actual reentry, but even on the day, uncertainties will remain large,” echoed Marco Langbroek, a lecturer, scientist and satellite tracker at Delft University of Technology.
The spacecraft is also covered with a protective thermal shield, despite its estimated weight of 1,050 pounds.
This indicates that it will probably make it through its descent to Earth partially undamaged. Who will be in control of the space debris upon landing is yet unknown.
Kosmos 482 reentry tracker and where to go for live updates
The location of Kosmos 482 in space is being updated by the ESA for fans and other interested parties.
The website is producing live prediction diagrams for visual learners and providing frequent updates on its blog as the 53-year-old landing capsule returns to Earth.
The ESA Kosmos 482 reentry tracker and real-time updates are available here.
Kosmos 482 reentry map and where satellite could land
The location of the descent craft’s landing is likewise uncertain, much as the time it would descend.
Kosmos 482 is expected to land 52 degrees north and south of the equator, according to space specialists.
The United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, and portions of Russia are all traversed by the 52nd parallel north.
Additionally, it affects parts of North America, the Atlantic Ocean, Asia, and the Pacific Ocean.
The 52nd parallel south, on the other hand, crosses portions of Argentina and Chile before arriving to the Atlantic Ocean and the Falkland Islands.
Experts will be able to more accurately determine the location of Kosmos 482’s closest landing.
Impact Kosmos 482 could have on Earth
Kosmos re-entering the atmosphere is just as horrifying as the thought of anything hitting Earth.
According to Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard-Smithsonian Centre for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts, the US, the spacecraft could kill people and destroy buildings when it strikes the ground.
“It is alarming but not end-of-the-world alarming,” he said. “It’s like a medium-sized car falling out of the sky.”
The space expert went on to say that there is “no need for major concern” because it is likely that the Kosmos 482 will crash in ocean or uninhabited territory.
“It’s much more likely that you win the lottery than that you get impacted by this piece of space debris,” said Stijn Lemmens, Senior Space Debris Mitigation Analyst at the European Space Agency, echoing McDowell’s remarks to the BBC.
Meanwhile, individuals have a “larger risk of being hit by lightning once in your lifetime,” according to lecturer and space traffic specialist Marco Langbroek.
The Aerospace Corporation calculated that the odds of Cosmos 482 inflicting fatal damage were about 1 in 25,000.
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