Off The Record
Professor Brian Cox Warns That The Likelihood Of An Asteroid Striking Earth Has Doubled
Humanity may “have to make a decision” about an asteroid that might strike Earth in 2032, according to Professor Brian Cox.
After being detected by a telescope in Chile in December, the asteroid “2024 YR4” was assigned a 1.3% chance of striking Earth earlier this year.
However, NASA quadrupled the asteroid’s odds of striking Earth on Friday, giving it a 2.3% chance of doing so.
December 22, 2032, would be the date of impact.
In a post on X, NASA Asteroid Watch said: “While still an extremely low possibility, asteroid 2024 YR4’s impact probability with Earth has increased from about 1% to a 2.3% chance on Dec. 22, 2032. As we observe the asteroid more, the impact probability will become better known.”
According to Professor Brian Cox, the world may soon need to “make a decision” about the asteroid and whether a “deflection mission” is ready in case the collision becomes more likely.
In a post on X, the physicist wrote, “Interesting situation—if the probability remains this high then we will have to make a decision on preparing a deflection mission—which would be a good investment even if (as is most likely) we don’t need to use it this time.”
“It’s as if the universe has decided to do an experiment to see if Planet Earth is still capable of taking rational decisions!”
The asteroid tops both NASA’s and ESA’s impact risk lists, prompting a worldwide planetary defense response at the ESA for the first time in its history.
According to NASA, 2024 YR4 will be 130–300 feet in diameter.
As is frequently the case, the asteroid may be ruled out as an impact threat as further observations are conducted. But it’s also possible that the likelihood of its impact will keep increasing.
The NASA website has more information about asteroid 2024 YR4 here.
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