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What Happens To Iran’s Power Structure If Its Supreme Leader Dies Or Is Removed Amid Conflict

Published on June 23, 2025

Iran’s Supreme Leader has gone into hiding after attacks on the country, and this is what will happen if he is removed from power or passes away.

Since 1989, Ali Khamenei has been Iran’s second Supreme Leader; however, he is now hiding out of fear of being assassinated.

In the midst of escalating Middle East tensions, US President Donald Trump destroyed three significant nuclear installations in the nation on Saturday night, June 21.

According to the BBC, the US first fired missiles at Fordo, a plant tucked away in a remote mountaintop that is allegedly essential to Iran’s nuclear aspirations.

Trump said the US also targeted nuclear sites at Isfahan and Natanz. The precise extent of the US attack’s damage is yet unknown. Trump said that Iran’s nuclear facilities had been “obliterated” and called the operation a “spectacular military success.”

Additionally, Iran fired missiles at US air bases in Qatar and Iraq earlier today (June 23) in what appeared to be retaliation.

Under Iran’s system, the Supreme Leader has more authority than the president, who executes the Supreme Leader’s directives rather than formulating their own policies.

In contrast to presidents in other countries, the Supreme Leader is the only one with ultimate power over the government.

What happens when Iran’s leader dies or is deposed?

The Assembly of Experts, which consists of 88 senior clerics, is charged under Iran’s constitution with selecting a new Supreme Leader.

The Atlantic Council indicates that this assembly is approved by election after being reviewed by another clerical body.

It’s a lot like the Catholic Church’s Conclave cardinals choosing a new pope.

But these things rarely go as planned.

Iran has only had one Supreme Leader change in its forty-three-year history, following the death of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989.

Ayatollah Montazeri was initially chosen by Khomeini to succeed him, but he was later removed after publicly denouncing a previous mass execution of political prisoners. Therefore, prior to Khomeini’s passing, no new replacement was named.

President Ali Khamenei, a mid-level cleric at the time, was chosen by the Assembly of Experts to succeed Khomeini.

The prime minister’s position was eliminated and the presidency was given more authority when Iran’s constitution was altered to allow for a leader with a lower religious status.

Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani became president twice when Khamenei resigned as president and was accepted as Supreme Leader.

Rafsanjani’s power gradually diminished as Khamenei, who had been elevated to the position of ayatollah, formed a solid alliance with the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC).

In addition to having enormous economic and security influence today, the IRGC probably has the most influence over the selection of the next Supreme Leader.

Will Iran get a new leader according to its laws?

According to the New York Times, Khamenei has chosen three potential successors, none of them have been made public yet.

At a June 13 media briefing, Ray Takeyh and Hasib J. Sabbagh, Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, gave remarks.

He clarified that public opinion might not firmly oppose foreign operations if they harm Iran’s leadership without causing significant civilian losses.

Why? As a result of the government’s emphasis on developing nuclear weapons, a lot of people already distrust them.

Although there is no clear succession plan, no one is certain who would succeed Khamenei or if that someone could bring Iran’s ruling groups together.

Takeyh said, “Now, the question is, can the society overwhelm the state even in its weakened condition? I don’t have the answer to that question.”

In part, he continued, “They may arrive at the same conclusion as the past, that their economic vulnerabilities and other sort of ability of the Israelis and Americans to exact an economic price upon them still militates that restraint.”

“But again, I don’t think they know the answer to that question. And I certainly don’t know the answer to that question, because everybody’s trying to sort this out in real time.”

“Ali Khamenei is still – within the regime, at least, his ability to impose order is there. Now whether he’ll have a successor at that time with a similar degree of authority, I don’t think so, in the short term.”

“Which means other centers of power will have their own prerogatives. And the regime will be much more chaotic in its decision making.”