Off The Record
West-Central Florida Facing The Biggest Hurricane Threat In Over A Century
Milton is threatening to hit Florida’s Big Bend, less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene did.
However, because of the state’s unique coastline, the angle of impact may make the new storm system the worst in more than a century for portions of west-central Florida.
With the recent effects of Helene, Debby, Ian, and Idalia, the area is undoubtedly tired of storms.
The FOX Forecast Center cautions, meanwhile, that the situation is comparable to what emergency managers have feared yet planned for for decades due to the unusual angle of attack.
Because to the wind direction and distance from the Category 4 hurricane’s center, cities south of Florida’s Big Bend saw storm surges of 5-8 feet on average during Helene, which was on the lower end of the spectrum.
Significantly more water will be piled up than in prior cyclones if a storm tracks over or just north of the Tampa-Sarasota region.
“The West Coast of Florida is spectacularly vulnerable to storm surge, as we have seen. Even a tropical storm can push Gulf water to dangerous heights, let alone a strong hurricane. It’s critical that everybody in Central and South Florida stay well-informed since things are developing quickly,” said FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross.
According to the SLOSH storm surge model, large swaths of Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Pasco counties are submerged under feet of water after a Category 3 cyclone.
In the worst-case scenario for the metro, a large hurricane would cause the water level to rise by more than nine feet due to the shoreline’s morphology.
Significant deviations from the metro’s path result in drastically different effects, which some Floridians have encountered recently.
across 130 miles north of Tampa, Hurricanes Idalia and Helene made landfall. The southerly flow contributed to storm surges of 3 to 8 feet across the metro area.
Conversely, when Hurricane Ian made landfall in 2022 close to Fort Myers, it set up a northeast flow across the area.
In fact, Tampa Bay saw a negative storm surge due to the hurricane’s strength, with water levels dropping by 5 to 8 feet.
Residents were even seen, however foolishly, strolling along the muddy lakebed.
Emergency managers have planned for worst case scenario for Tampa metro
Emergency management have been bracing for a direct hit for years, but the precise impact of Milton won’t be known until the hurricane leaves the Sunshine State.
The Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council created a planning exercise in 2009 called “Project Phoenix,” which replicated the consequences of a Category 5 hurricane striking directly.
Along the coast, the simulated hurricane created a storm surge of around 40 feet, and the water level in downtown Tampa rose by 10 to 15 feet.
If it materialized, the event would be the most expensive in U.S. history, with damage estimates in the hundreds of billions of dollars.
Although there is historical precedent with a Category 3 hurricane that made landfall north of Tampa in 1921, no one, including the NHC and numerous computer models, is advocating for Milton to achieve Category 5 status.
With gusts of about 120 mph, the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane made landfall close to Tarpon Springs after developing in the Caribbean.
The storm surge was around 11 feet, according to the National Weather Service, and records showed that only eight individuals died.
It’s crucial to remember that the Tampa Bay metro’s estimated population was only a little over 100,000, whereas current census estimates place the total population at over 3 million.
Only two big storms have directly struck Tampa in more than 180 years of record-keeping: a Category 3 cyclone in 1921 and a Category 4 hurricane in 1848.
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