Science
Thousands Of Quakes Hit Sleeping Supervolcano—Eruption Could Be Catastrophic
Something ancient and dreadful has started to awaken deep beneath a busy Italian metropolis. Scientists have been keeping an eye on progressively worrying indications for months, indicating that one of the planet’s most hazardous geological formations is waking up from its protracted dormancy. The quiet suburban communities and bustling ports that lie unaware above them are in conflict with what they are detecting.
The international volcanology community has been rocked by recent data, and scientists are rushing to comprehend the ramifications of readings that are higher than anything seen in decades. Unprecedented gas emissions, ground-shaking incidents, and gradual yet persistent landscape changes are creating a picture that has specialists extremely worried about what can happen next.
Millions of people live their lives under the shadow of this unseen behemoth, but an increasing number of scientists are warning that we might be seeing the beginning of something that might drastically change life as we know it. Their warnings are more frightening since this is not science fiction; rather, it is a real threat that has happened and will surely happen again.
Something Massive Is Stirring Beneath Italy and It’s Not Vesuvius
Mount Vesuvius is typically the first person who thinks about volcanic risks in the vicinity of Naples. But just to the west, behind the ostensibly tranquil port town of Pozzuoli, lies a much more hazardous neighbour. The Phlegraean Fields, or Campi Flegrei, are the closest thing to a supervolcano in Europe.
Campi Flegrei seems as a 13-kilometer-wide crater created by unthinkably violent past eruptions rather than a conventional capped mountain. Unaware that their dwellings are situated on one of the planet’s most potentially deadly geological phenomena, about 360,000 people live directly above this sleeping behemoth.
Alarming alterations revealed by recent scientific findings indicate that the ancient caldera may be about to start a new stage of activity. Current developments are happening at a rate that has surprised researchers, in contrast to the slow processes that usually define geological evolution.
When Earth’s Pressure Cooker Starts Making Noise
A seismic wake-up call in May 2024 had an impact much beyond the reach of Italy’s geological monitoring stations. The Campi Flegrei region saw its biggest earthquake in forty years, with a magnitude of 4.4. However, this was not an isolated incident; rather, it was a single, spectacular moment in a continuous sequence of more than 3,000 smaller earthquakes that were recorded during the six months prior.
Swarms of this size and frequency of earthquakes usually signal large changes in subsurface pressure brought on by the expansion of gas pockets or the ascent of magma. Residents, many of whom left their houses following the larger quake, are tense due to the ongoing seismic activity, according to scientists keeping an eye on the situation.
Bradyseism is the geological phenomena that has caused the caldera floor and the settlement above it to rise at a pace of 3–4 centimetres per year since the early 2000s. Even more astoundingly, since monitoring started in the 1950s, the ground has risen an astounding 4 meters, causing noticeable changes in the landscape that locals can see for themselves.
Usually, when subterranean magma chambers expand or when pressurised gases look for escape routes towards the surface, such significant ground deformation takes place.
Warning Signs That Have Scientists on High Alert
In addition to seismic activity, assessments of petrol emissions have shown equally concerning trends. Between 4,000 and 5,000 metric tonnes of carbon dioxide are released every day, according to Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology. This is a huge amount that suggests a lot of subterranean activity.
“If the ground continues rising for long enough, the crust must eventually give way. The big unknown is how much more stretching the crust can take,” explains Prof Christopher Kilburn, a volcano expert at University College London who has been monitoring the situation closely.
According to recent studies conducted by the University of Naples, interactions between hot fluids and subterranean rock formations account for 20% of these gas emissions, while magma activity is directly responsible for about 80% of them. The large proportions of emissions linked to magma indicate that molten rock is approaching the surface.
Magma has been found at shockingly shallow depths (only a few kilometres below the surface) by sophisticated monitoring equipment. The enormous carbon dioxide emissions that are currently being seen are caused by the depressurisation and volatile gas release that occurs when this molten material rises.
When History Shows What’s Coming Could Be Catastrophic
The geological past of Campi Flegrei offers a dismal backdrop for the events of today. The supervolcano erupted some 36,000 years ago, causing what scientists believe to be the biggest volcanic eruption to strike Europe in at least 200,000 years. The event spread ash throughout the Mediterranean region and even as far as Russia, while not being large enough to be considered a “super-eruption” by today’s technical standards.
The ancient eruption caused a volcanic winter that lowered temperatures by up to 9°C in eastern Europe, disrupting the climate and possibly hastening the fall of Neanderthal populations. These enormous atmospheric effects show how entire continents can be reshaped by even “smaller” supervolcano eruptions.
The hill known as Monte Nuovo was formed in a matter of days during the last documented eruption of Campi Flegrei, which took place in 1538. This eruption showed how rapidly volcanic landscapes may change when subterranean forces are released, even though it was quite little in comparison to prehistoric eruptions.
Four Million People Living in Volcano’s Crosshairs
In the event that the volcano erupts again, the contemporary population density surrounding Campi Flegrei presents an unparalleled humanitarian problem. The possible impact zone, which includes the entire city of Naples and many nearby metropolitan centres, is home to more than four million people.
In contrast to isolated volcanic locations where thousands of people may need to evacuate, Campi Flegrei poses a hazard to heavily populated urban areas with intricate transportation, economic, and infrastructure networks. Emergency planners are still trying to solve the logistical challenge of coordinating emergency responses for such large populations.
The possible effects go well beyond the nearby lava flows. In addition to destroying crops, clogging machinery, and causing major respiratory issues, volcanic ash can ground aeroplanes. Within minutes of an eruption beginning, entire neighbourhoods might be destroyed by pyroclastic flows, which are swift currents of hot gas and volcanic debris.
The official warning level in Italy has been upgraded from green (normal) to yellow (caution). They are still working on evacuation procedures, but it is still very difficult to move millions of people rapidly.
Global Domino Effect Could Plunge Planet Into Chaos
Although southern Italy would be the main region affected immediately by Campi Flegrei, a significant eruption might have global repercussions that go well beyond local devastation. When volcanic ash is released into the upper atmosphere, it can travel great distances and possibly cover a large portion of Europe in a dense, oppressive cloud.
As volcanic ash clouds shut down commercial aviation on several continents, international air travel would be immediately disrupted. Devastating crop losses could hit European agricultural systems, causing food shortages that would affect international markets.
Researchers point out that significant volcanic events have the potential to disrupt the climate. Around 74,000 years ago, Sumatra’s Toba volcano erupted at least 2,800km³ of ash, debris, and gas, causing several years of severe cooling that, if it occurred today, would probably destroy harvests worldwide.
The “Year Without a Summer” that followed Mount Tambora’s eruption in Indonesia in 1815 is an example of how sulphur gases emitted during large eruptions can cause cooling effects in the atmosphere. Widespread economic instability and stress on the already delicate global food supply chains could result from such climatic upheavals.
Scientists Use Engineering Models to Predict Volcanic Failure
To better understand how volcanic systems respond to severe stress, researchers have modified structural engineering methods for mechanical failure modelling. These models aid in forecasting the important transition that frequently occurs before major eruptions: the point at which subterranean rock formations may go from progressive bending to abrupt breaking.
According to recent analyses, the crust beneath Campi Flegrei is getting closer to this transition point, where accumulated stress may form networks of fractures that allow pressurised magma to escape. Once formed, these cracks have the potential to cause explosive eruptions because they can spread quickly downhill until they cross over into magma chambers.
Seismometer arrays, satellite radar interferometry, GPS networks, and other sophisticated monitoring technologies offer real-time information on earthquake activity and ground deformation. Nevertheless, one of the biggest problems in volcanology is still converting these findings into precise eruption forecasts.
Yellowstone and Other Global Giants Also Showing Unrest
Campi Flegrei is one of about 20 supervolcanoes known to exist in the world that have previously erupted catastrophically. Monitoring experts are concerned about the varied degrees of unrest that are currently occurring in many of these systems.
The most well-known supervolcano in America is located in Yellowstone National Park, which frequently suffers earthquakes and ground deformation that keep it in the news worldwide. The United States Geological Survey has designated the Long Valley Caldera in California as a “very high threat” due to its ongoing instability since 1980.
Over the past 20 years, the Laguna del Maule in Chile has swelled at unusual rates, reaching up to 30 centimetres each year. Although the current magma volumes seem insufficient for super-eruption scenarios, the Uturuncu volcano in Bolivia exhibits uplift over an area of more than 1,000 square kilometres.
These systems are all in what scientists refer to as the “resurgence” stage, when the buildup of new magma results in small-scale eruptions, earthquake swarms, and ground deformation.
Warning System That Could Save Millions or Fail Completely
Detecting changes that arise when magma builds up or rises towards the surface is the foundation of contemporary volcano monitoring. Rising magma has to make room for itself, which causes ground displacement that can be measured by satellites and GPS. Seismometers can detect the distinctive earthquake patterns created by breaking rock to reach the surface.
But according to studies, the buildup to major eruptions may happen more quickly than previously believed. According to research on Long Valley, it might have taken less than a year to prepare for its biggest eruption, which happened 750,000 years ago. This is not enough time for thorough disaster planning.
However, research conducted at Long Valley indicates that it may have taken less than a year to build up to its most massive eruption, which occurred about 750,000 years ago. Scientists caution that catastrophic volcanic outbursts could start quickly.
Implementing the food storage and rationing strategies required to withstand the worldwide cooling impacts that follow large eruptions would be very challenging with such brief warning periods.
Lottery Odds of Disaster Nobody Wants to Win
According to statistical assessments, the likelihood of a super-eruption happening anywhere on Earth during a person’s lifetime is roughly 1 in 1,400. Even while these odds may seem comforting, they are far more likely than the odds of winning several lottery prizes that people often win.
Although the average time between super-eruptions is thought to be about 100,000 years, the geological systems of Earth don’t always return on the same time. Multiple events could happen in comparatively short periods of time since eruptions can cluster with significantly longer quiet intervals.
Rather than being a possibility, super-eruptions are likely to occur again, somewhere on Earth. When, where, and if human civilisation will be ready for the repercussions when they do happen are the only issues.
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