Science
‘City Killer’ Asteroid May Strike Moon Sooner Than Expected, Scientists Warn
An alarming update on the potential impact of a “city killer” asteroid on the Moon is provided by scientists.
You’re not dreaming if 2025 seems like it’s been filled with one doomsday warning after another. It’s been a year filled with ominous headlines, with academics warning of several ‘city killer’ asteroids that may destroy Earth and mystics like Baba Vanga and Nostradamus forecasting world wars.
When asteroid 2024 YR4 was initially found, it created quite an impression, measuring between 53 and 67 meters across.
To put that magnitude in perspective, we are discussing an item similar to the asteroid that, in 1908, destroyed 2,000 square kilometres of forest in Tunguska, Siberia.
It would be disastrous if something of that magnitude struck a populated region now.
This piece of space rock has a less than 1.5 percent chance of hitting Earth in December 2032, according to preliminary assessments.
This chance rapidly doubled as further information became available.
Additionally, NASA issued a warning in February 2025 that 2024 YR4 will pass “quite close to Earth” in 2028, with a “one in 45 chance” of having an impact.
Even more horrifying is the fact that its size and speed would be sufficient to destroy a metropolis, if not more, if it were to strike our home planet.
Fortunately, more measurements soon eliminated any plausible possibility of 2024 YR4 striking Earth, therefore eliminating the likelihood of a collision.
However, with a 3.8 percent chance of collision, the Moon was still in the line of fire.
However, the 2024 YR4 now has a higher collision risk. For the Moon, not for Earth.
Astronomers under the direction of Andy Rivkin of the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory have revised the collision probability to 4.3 percent based on new data made in May by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST).
Even though it’s not too high, it’s plenty to get researchers together in anticipation.
This is because the Moon wouldn’t be destroyed or even have its orbit significantly altered by the collision. Rather, it would produce an amazing crater creation process that would be visible to scientists in real time.
“The possibility of getting a chance for an observation of a sizable Moon impact is indeed an interesting scenario from a scientific point of view,” said Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency’s planetary defence office.
Having advance warning would enable scientists to aim every telescope and device at the Moon in order to record the event, as we rarely get to witness major impacts as they occur. It will undoubtedly go down in history if it occurs.
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