Off The Record

Historian Who Is Accurate About Every Election Since 1984 Picks The Winner For 2024

Published on September 2, 2024

A historian with a solid track record of doing so has predicted the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Since President Reagan’s reelection in 1984, American University professor Allan Lichtman claims to have anticipated every presidential victory.

Known as the “Nostradamus” of elections, Nostradamus was a 16th-century French physician, astrologer, and purported seer.

According to legend, he foresaw the Great Fire of London, Napoleon’s (and Hitler’s) ascent, and the September 11 collapse of the Twin Towers.

Lichtman has resorted to social media in the run-up to the election to share his current predictions.

President Joe Biden declared on July 21 that he was not running for reelection.

In a written statement, the 81-year-old said it had been his “greatest honor” to serve, but his withdrawal was “in the best interest of my party and the country.”

His political career ended abruptly as the Democratic party began to worry that he was too weak to serve.

Following his withdrawal from the presidential contest, Biden supported her party’s nominee, 59-year-old Vice President Kamala Harris.

Harris is the highest-ranking female official in American history and the country’s first female vice president. According to the White House, she is also the first vice president who is both Black and South Asian.

Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, is Harris’ opponent. Trump presided over the United States from 2017 to 2021.

According to NBC News, fresh surveys indicate that both candidates are close in a number of battleground states while they spend time solidifying their support.

In a poll conducted by Reuters and IPSos, Harris narrowly defeated Trump by one percentage point; the vice president led 43% to 42%.

Voter registration increased after it was revealed Harris was a contender, according to the nonpartisan website Vote.org.

CEO Andrea Hailey posted on X (formerly Twitter): “We registered nearly 40,000 voters—an almost 700% daily increase in new registration.”

“That’s the largest number of new voters registered over a 48-hour period we’ve seen this entire cycle.”

There have been rumors in the run-up to the election that J.D. Vance, the vice presidential choice of the Republicans, could cost Trump significant votes.

Vance’s previous remarks surfaced again when the 78-year-old announced the Ohio senator as his running mate.

He questioned in 2021 why Harris and other prominent politicians were childless.

At the time, Vance said (per the BBC): “The entire future of the Democrats is controlled by people without children.”

“How does it make any sense we’ve turned our country over to people who don’t really have a direct stake in it?”

He added that the country was being run “by a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives and the choices that they’ve made, and so they want to make the rest of the country miserable too.”

During a recent appearance on The Megyn Kelly Show, Vance defended his resurfaced comments, stating: “Obviously it was a sarcastic comment.” People are focusing so much on the sarcasm and not on the substance of what I actually said.

“The substance of what I said, Megyn—I’m sorry, it’s true.”

He added: “This is about criticizing the Democratic Party for becoming anti-family and anti-children.”

Lichtman has released an update on his intricate prediction algorithm amid the election countdown.

The model, which Lichtman refers to as the “keys,” consists of thirteen true-false questions and a general rule of thumb that states that a team loses if six or more of the keys disagree with the White House party. If not, they prevail.

Party mandate, the short- and long-term economies, policy changes, and societal discontent are important factors, according to the American University website.

Lichtman claims that with less than 100 days to the election, the odds are stacked in favor of Harris.

Taking to X, he writes: “Biden’s withdrawal cost Democrats the Incumbency Key on my 13 Keys to the White House prediction system. But the excitement generated by his endorsement of VP Harris makes it very likely that they retain the contest key as she becomes the consensus nominee.”

The professor told C-SPAN (per Daily Mail): “I have not made a final prediction. I’ve said I will make it after the Democratic convention.”

“But I have said for months, and I continue to say a lot would have to go wrong for Democrats to lose.”

“That could happen, but a lot would have to change.”